On October 26, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba participated in a campaign event in Tokyo, just a day before the House of Representatives election. Reports from Kyodo News suggest that if the ruling coalition fails to secure a majority in parliament, Ishiba may face significant challenges in forming a government. Speculation is circulating that he may need to seek new political allies. In the worst-case scenario, Ishiba could lose his position as Prime Minister.
Analysts have outlined three potential options for Ishiba to remain in power if he fails to win a majority. The first option would be to persuade opposition parties to join his government. The second would involve negotiating policy agreements with another party not currently in the cabinet. The third option would require accepting members of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) who were not officially nominated but were elected.
Kouya Miyamae, a senior economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, indicated that if the ruling coalition falls short of a majority, Ishiba might resign immediately to take responsibility. However, Kyodo reported that the most likely scenario is that Ishiba would quickly begin negotiations with opposition party leaders to seek their support after the election. Hiroshi Moriyama, the LDP’s deputy leader and secretary-general, emphasized the importance of engaging in active dialogue with parties that share similar policy ideologies, regardless of the election outcome.
However, leaders of the main opposition parties have expressed a reluctance to collaborate with the LDP. Earlier this month, they submitted a no-confidence motion against Ishiba’s cabinet. The Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) leader, Yoshihiko Noda, stated on October 22 that it would be fundamentally impossible to ally with a party facing such a motion and criticized the LDP for its political funding scandals. Yuichiro Tamaki, leader of the Democratic Party for the People, also indicated that he has no intention of joining a coalition led by the LDP but hinted at the possibility of policy-oriented collaboration with the ruling camp.
If Ishiba fails to forge alliances with the opposition, he may have to accept and work with elected lawmakers who were not nominated by the LDP due to the scandals mentioned earlier. The LDP had previously decided not to nominate 12 lawmakers implicated in these scandals. Recent reports revealed that the LDP provided financial support to local branches led by candidates who were not officially nominated, raising further concerns.
These candidates are also in a difficult position. Hiroyuki Kamiyama, a constitutional law professor at Kobe Gakuin University, noted that voters are holding the LDP accountable for its failure to fully uncover the truth behind the scandals.
Should none of Ishiba’s three options pan out, his standing within the LDP could weaken significantly, making him susceptible to internal challenges. In a worst-case scenario, if the LDP faces a major defeat, the opposition could form a new governing coalition, leaving Ishiba out of the Prime Minister’s office altogether. There is growing anticipation that Ishiba may become the shortest-serving Prime Minister in post-World War II Japan.
Despite the challenges, Ishiba is viewed as one of the more popular choices for Prime Minister in media polls. Given the significant impact of the scandals on the LDP’s reputation, he seems intent on leveraging what little honeymoon period he has after taking office to win the election and strengthen his political clout. However, a survey conducted by Kyodo on October 22 indicated that the LDP and its ally, Komeito, might lose their parliamentary majority, underscoring the severe repercussions of the scandals and their corrosive effect on public trust in politics.
