As we approach the November presidential election, it seems increasingly likely that former President Donald Trump will reject the results if he faces defeat. Current polling shows him locked in a tight race with Vice President Kamala Harris, and he has been actively preparing his supporters to believe that any loss may only be attributed to electoral fraud. At a recent rally, he stated, “If I lose – I’ll tell you what, it’s possible. Because they cheat. That’s the only way we’re gonna lose, because they cheat.”
Trump’s reluctance to accept the election outcomes has been evident, as he has repeatedly dodged a straightforward commitment to accept the results, only suggesting he would do so if “it’s fair and legal and good.” Furthermore, his rhetoric embraces the supporters who violently stormed the Capitol on January 6, framing it as a “day of love.”
His running mate, JD Vance, has also been outspoken. The Ohio senator has previously indicated he would not have certified the 2020 election results and did not directly acknowledge Trump’s loss during the vice-presidential debate.
This time around, Trump’s plans to contest the results are bolstered by considerable backing from the Republican Party and a well-organized legal infrastructure. Sean Morales-Doyle, director of the voting rights program at the Brennan Center for Justice, noted, “The effort to try to subvert the outcome is more thought-out, more strategic, more organized, more coordinated than in 2020.”
Many Republican voters are already primed to support Trump’s strategy; a recent survey found that nearly one in five believe he should dismiss the election results if he loses. Moreover, numerous individuals who disputed the previous election results now hold positions that give them influence over vote certification. A significant number of these officials, led by Trump ally Cleta Mitchell, are involved in monitoring election processes and challenging voter legitimacy.
A report from Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington revealed that at least 35 officials who have previously rejected election certifications will play a role in the upcoming vote certification. Additionally, the Republican National Committee has engaged in filing numerous lawsuits with dubious claims of fraud. While many of these cases have already been dismissed, they serve to create the illusion of widespread voter irregularities.
The Harris campaign, alongside voting rights attorneys and civil rights organizations, is preparing for a tumultuous post-election period that could involve numerous lawsuits aimed at disrupting the election’s aftermath.
While experts agree Trump will likely contest a defeat, they are also skeptical about his potential for success. Most of his previous legal efforts to overturn election results were dismissed by judges, and a similar outcome is anticipated this time. Lawyers and election officials have been learning from past events and are ready to respond swiftly to any disturbances. Morales-Doyle remarked, “Election officials have seen what the election deniers’ playbook looks like… and know what to prepare for.”
As the counting of votes begins, Trump is expected to raise allegations of vote rigging, similar to his actions in 2020. News outlets may take hours or days to confidently declare a winner, especially given potential close margins. Trump is likely to claim that any unfavorable vote counts are evidence of fraud.
These accusations will likely be accompanied by lawsuits alleging various voting irregularities, supported by affidavits from individuals claiming to witness anomalies. While the legitimacy of these claims will typically be questioned, they may propel the narrative that something went wrong in the 2020 election.
The Republican National Committee has already been preparing for such scenarios, filing suits in swing states concerning supposed voter roll issues. However, judges have often dismissed these cases.
In Michigan, for instance, a recently dismissed lawsuit claimed disproportionately high voter registration rates compared to eligible voters, but officials pointed out that the RNC failed to identify any specific ineligible voters.
As seen in 2020, Trump’s legal strategy may evolve post-election as he seeks to further challenge the results, potentially attempting to halt the certification process. While such maneuvers are deemed illegal by election experts, this pattern has escalated since 2020, with some local election officials already showcasing refusal to certify primary election outcomes this year.
The upcoming challenges could culminate when Congress meets to certify the electoral college votes on January 6, 2025. Recent bipartisan legislation has made it more difficult for Congress to obstruct this process.
Furthermore, in a notable shift, Trump has begun accentuating a narrative of non-citizen voting. Despite studies showing the rarity of this occurrence, he, alongside several Republicans, has propagated the notion that non-citizens could significantly affect election outcomes, thereby diversifying his claims regarding election integrity.
David Becker from the Center for Election Innovation and Research commented on the concerning implications of such claims, stating that if Trump loses, the false narrative about non-citizen voting is expected to take center stage.
As election night approaches, Morales-Doyle expresses concern over the long-term effects of undermining trust in electoral processes. He emphasizes, “Democracy only works if people believe in it,” warning that persistent distrust may inflict lasting harm on the democratic fabric of the nation. While hopeful about the resilience of institutions, he acknowledges that this campaign to undermine electoral legitimacy poses significant risks.
