On October 25th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to discuss the agricultural and rural economic performance for the first three quarters of 2024. During the event, Zhang Xingwang, Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, reported that, as of October 24th, over 80% of the autumn grain harvest has been completed nationwide.
A reporter inquired, “You mentioned that more than 80% of the autumn grain has already been harvested, and this year’s grain production is expected to exceed 1.4 trillion jin. How do you assess the current grain supply and demand situation in China? Has there been any fundamental change in the tight balance of supply and demand for grain?”
Zhang responded that overall, grain production in China is progressing smoothly this year. Despite some severe localized weather events—such as the “Dragon Boat Water” in South China, super typhoons, extreme rainfall in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and droughts affecting parts of the Huanghuaihai region, as well as extreme low temperatures and heavy rains in the Northeast—these have indeed caused some losses in local agricultural production. However, from a national perspective, this year has seen relatively mild agricultural disasters, with a total of 135 million acres of crops affected, which is over 44 million acres less than the average of previous years.
He further stated that, according to dispatches from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, as of October 24th, over 80% of the autumn grain harvest has been completed, indicating significant yields. Reports from various regions and expert assessments suggest that the majority of provinces are seeing an increase in production. While some areas may experience reductions due to disaster impacts, the overall trend shows a clear increase in autumn grain production. Coupled with the summer and early rice harvests, national grain production is expected to reach a new milestone of over 1.4 trillion jin.
Zhang highlighted the increase in cultivation area this year, as the central government has increased its financial support for grain production, achieving full coverage of cost insurance for major grains and planting income insurance. The minimum purchase prices for wheat and early indica rice have been raised, which effectively encourages farmers to plant more grains. Adjustments in planting structures and the development of intercropping practices have resulted in a stable increase in autumn grain acreage, particularly for high-yield crops like corn, which significantly contributes to overall production growth.
He also noted an increase in yield per unit area. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in collaboration with the National Development and Reform Commission, has been implementing a corn yield enhancement program and has recently launched a similar program for soybeans. They are actively promoting large-scale yield enhancement actions for major crops like grains and oils, emphasizing measures such as improved planting density, enhanced sowing quality, integrated water and fertilizer management, and multi-purpose spraying techniques to promote balanced yield increases. It’s anticipated that improvements in yield per unit area could account for more than 70% of the overall rise in grain production.
From a supply and demand perspective, Zhang mentioned that while the supply situation for rice and wheat remains relatively stable, there is still a significant gap in corn production versus demand, and soybeans continue to be largely dependent on imports. The national grain supply and demand is in a tight balance, and no substantial changes have occurred. He stressed that maintaining a stable and secure food supply is critical, emphasizing the need to adhere strictly to farmland protection regulations, continuously boost farmers’ willingness to cultivate grain, and accelerate improvements in comprehensive grain production capacities to solidify the foundation of national food security.
In conclusion, Zhang pointed out that overall, this year’s autumn grain harvest, along with the total grain yield for the year, is poised to be another bountiful harvest. While favorable weather conditions may play a role, he credited effective policies and the hard work of farmers as the key factors contributing to this success.
