The Japanese House of Representatives elections are set to take place on the 27th, with uncertainty surrounding whether the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito will maintain a majority. On the streets of Tokyo, candidates are promoting their campaigns through posters, as seen in recent images.
Polling suggests that the LDP is facing a challenging election, with indications that even with support from its traditional ally, Komeito, it may struggle to secure a majority in the House of Representatives. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, whose popularity has been declining, has been urgently reaching out to candidates in various districts, vowing to “do everything possible” to lead the party to victory. Analysis from Reuters indicates that Japanese voters remain dissatisfied with the LDP’s handling of political donation scandals and rising inflation, potentially forcing the party to compromise with other political groups, increasing geopolitical uncertainty.
According to the latest poll by Asahi Shimbun, the LDP could lose approximately 50 seats from its pre-election total of 257, while Komeito might see a reduction of around 10 from its 32 seats. The coalition may fail to reach the necessary 233 seats for a majority. Analysts predict that while the LDP will likely remain the largest party in the legislature, the lost seats could shift to the major opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP).
It’s been reported that senior members of the LDP held a strategy meeting to identify key electoral districts based on polling differences. Districts where LDP candidates are trailing by more than 10 percentage points have been strategically abandoned, allowing the party to focus its efforts on winning approximately 40 districts where the polling gap is narrower. During the meeting, concerns were raised that some members of Ishiba’s cabinet may lose their seats, and preparations are being made for that possibility. Ishiba’s approval rating has also dipped slightly, from around 44% at the beginning of the month to about 41% now.
Reuters notes that if the LDP must rely on Komeito to secure a majority, the latter, which advocates for postwar pacifism, is likely to block the LDP’s attempts to revise the pacifist constitution, develop long-range missiles, and respond to perceived threats from China. Should the LDP require support from other opposition parties to form a government, Ishiba’s administration could face significant challenges, particularly in efforts to persuade the Bank of Japan to end decades-long monetary easing policies.
Rintaro Nishimura, a partner at the consulting firm Asia Group, stated, “Regardless of who wins the election, Japan is headed for a period of political instability.”
