As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky meets with leaders in Washington and Europe to present his “victory plan,” the Ukrainian military continues to face setbacks on the battlefield. Notably, nearly half of the territorial gains made in the Kursk region of Russia this summer have been reclaimed by Russian forces.
In early August, Ukraine launched a counteroffensive from the northeastern Sumy region, penetrating into the Russian-held Kursk area. At that time, Ukrainian officials hailed the operation as a success, reporting the capture of hundreds of Russian soldiers who could be used for prisoner exchanges. However, recent Russian counteroffensives in Kursk have raised concerns about how long Ukrainian forces can maintain their presence there.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a think tank that has closely monitored battlefield dynamics since the onset of the Russian invasion, visual evidence indicates that 46% of the territory that Ukraine seized in Kursk has already been retaken by Russian troops.
The Washington Post notes that these recent losses in Kursk highlight the military challenges Ukraine faces as discussions about ending the war intensify. Throughout the year, Russian forces have steadily advanced in the eastern Donetsk region, and besides Kursk, they have also made gains in northeastern Kharkiv, drawing closer to the strategically significant city of Kupyansk, which Ukraine had recaptured two years ago.
Zelensky has included the reclaimed land in Kursk as part of his victory narrative, framing it as a valuable bargaining chip for future negotiations with Russia. However, the Russian counteroffensive has jeopardized this strategic advantage.
Analysts have pointed out that the initial counteroffensive in Kursk also aimed to draw Russian troops away from the eastern front, alleviating pressure on Ukrainian forces. However, this objective appears to have faltered, as Russian forces retain substantial momentum in their invasion of eastern Ukraine, continuing attacks on Ukrainian supply hubs around Pokrovsk (also known as Red Army City) and key positions south of Kurakhove.
Ukrainian military intelligence predicts that Russia will reinforce its operations in the Kursk region, including deploying some of the thousands of North Korean troops that have been training in Russia and are now poised to enter the conflict. This move could allow Russia to reallocate some of its elite units currently engaged in Kursk to other fronts.
